NFL Week 14 Betting Action: Where the Public Money Is Going

Week 14 is shaping up as a study in contrasts — bettors are piling on favorites in some markets while quietly backing underdogs in others. Early public-money patterns are already bending lines and creating value pockets for sharp bettors who read the tape.

Sunday morning: Miami and Seattle tell two different stories

The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites at -150 with a 41½ total. Most action on the spread (58.46%) and total (58.33%) is siding with Miami, but the bulk of moneyline dollars (72.22%) sits with the Jets. That split suggests many bettors like Miami to cover but a surprising number of outright wagers are on New York — a classic sign of bettors hunting ML value on a perceived upset.

Seattle’s 7½-point road favorite tag at -405 is getting heavy alignment from the public across spread (75.61%) and moneyline (80.00%). With totals relatively quiet on Seattle (13.64%), the market shows confidence that Seattle will win decisively; books may shave chalk or nudge the total as that imbalance persists.

Sunday afternoon: Underdog love in Green Bay, Rams steamrolling expectations

Green Bay opened -6½ and early money is moving toward Chicago — 71.79% of spread action and 85.71% of moneyline action favor the Bears. That’s a strong underdog backing pattern and could compress the line if it holds, offering value for players who still prefer the Packers at current numbers.

Los Angeles Rams are getting heavyweight support in their matchup, with two-thirds-plus of spread, moneyline and total action on L.A. When a favorite draws that type of public consensus, look for books to protect themselves by adjusting lines or incentives on the opposing side.

Primetime dynamics: Chiefs-Texans and Monday’s Eagles tilt

Sunday night’s Chiefs game opened with KC -5½, but the split is telling: Texans lead moneyline activity (71.43%) while Kansas City narrowly holds the spread (51.32%) and dominates total-side action (85.71%). That suggests bettors see upset potential while most spread bettors still trust the Chiefs to cover.

Monday night’s Eagles (-2½) market is straightforward — Philly collects 62.71% of spread and a majority of moneyline action, while total wagers are currently all on Philadelphia’s side. When totals and spreads align like this, the market is signaling confidence in the favorite to control tempo and scoring.

College markets: similar splits, clear favorites, and contrarian ML plays

In NCAA Week 15, familiar patterns repeat. Texas Tech opened as an 11½ favorite; spread action favors Texas Tech (61.70%), but BYU leads moneyline and total action — another case of cover vs. outright-bet disagreement. Georgia’s market shows overwhelming support (75.14% spread action) while Virginia and Ohio State also command majorities in their games. These college splits offer the same lens: when spreads and moneylines don’t align, value often exists for bettors who pick a side and a market intentionally.

How to use this public-money tape

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Week 14’s early money shows line movement and market friction you can exploit if you move fast, compare odds, and size bets to manage risk. Watch how books react to these public flows — the next wave of adjustments will reveal where true value remains.